Analysing my UFC bets so far….

So, we’re 2 events in to my official sports capping career and it’s time for a recap on how we’ve done so far. In summary, very well 😛
You can read all my fight breakdowns on CapperTek. Depending on when you read this, you’ll have to change the drop down to show X number of days betting history. I’ve talked to CapperTek about making this a bit more MMA friendly but they’re more interested in the major US ball sports at this stage.

First event: UFC 186 – Johnson vs. Horiguchi: 9.89 units profit
Predictions made;
Nordine Taleb not to beat Chris Clements inside the distance. (CORRECT) Profit of 2.55 units
I split the prediction into two parts to get better odds. Clements to win SU (+226) and Taleb to win decision at +171. 1.5 units on each. The fight pretty much went exactly how I expected and Taleb won a wide decision, being quite happy to just sit in half guard and throw ponderous elbows, exactly like I stated he would in my breakdown.

Patrick Cote to win (CORRECT) Bet 11 units at -180 for profit of 6.16 units
Riggs was slightly more competitive than I thought but in the end it was a pretty clear decision.

Chad Laprice to win (CORRECT) Bet 11 units at -296 for profit of 3.74 units
This one I thought would be a lot more clear cut than it actually was. Laprice totally dominated the first round in exactly the way I expected but then for some reason completely gassed and struggled in the 2nd and 3rd to maintain his clear technical advantage. It appears that he was having trouble with his opponent’s size advantage so I would not be surprised to see Laprice drop to 145lbs at some point in his next couple of fights.

Parlay of 4 fights going to a decision and one SU pick at +1053. 1 unit (LOST)
Davis vs Kaufman (-240) (LOST)
Barberena vs Laprice (-150) (CORRECT)
Clements vs Taleb (+105) (CORRECT)
Daly vs Marcos (-185) (CORRECT)
plus Bec Rawlings beats Lisa Ellis (-184) (CORRECT)

This one was a learning experience for me. I chose 4 of these picks myself and then just casually threw one last one in there that everyone else said would happen, to bulk up the odds over +1000 because I thought it would be cool to hit a +1000 parlay on my first day of tipstering…. you can guess which one I just threw in without any knowledge 🙂

Without the Davis vs Kaufman pick in there it would have been correct at +712 and the event profit would have been +19 units instead of +10. Never mind! 🙂

Event Number 2: UFC Fight Night – Hunt vs. Miocic: +42.37 units profit
This event couldn’t have gone a whole lot better. Well, that’s actually a lie… I was away for the weekend and in Bucharest on a friend’s stag do / bachelor party and if I was at home I would have put bets on Miocic to get a TKO at +500(ish)… probably just 1 unit so I’m not going to complain too much! 🙂

Main pick: James Vick to beat Jake Matthews at +158. 11 units (max allowed by CapperTek) (CORRECT) 17.38 unit profit
At fight time odds on Vick were actually as high as +170 I believe, so if you were following the line closely you could make even more profit.
This fight went a long way to showing me that I can actually be good at this tipstering business. 8 out of 9 “experts” on MMA Junkie picked Jake Matthews but I was very confident in Vick, to the extent I actually went around telling my friends to put real money on it. The fight went totally as I expected. Jake Matthews was throwing heavy leather and trying desperately to get the fight to the ground (against the cage, just as I stated in my breakdown). Vick mostly stopped the takedowns but got taken down once (due to brute force)… there he used his good escapes to get straight back up. Matthews got rocked, as I said he may well do, then his poor technique on his takedowns, again as I noted :), led to him leaving his neck wide open for a guillotine choke that Vick finished quickly, due to his superior technique. Seriously, if you are wondering whether to follow my picks, read my breakdown of this fight on here or on CapperTek, then watch the fight. Basically every single thing I said would happen did, right down to Vick getting clipped early and getting semi-knocked down, but it not making a damn bit of difference.

One thing I would note: there is no way in hell Jake Matthews is 5 foot 9. He is every bit of 6 foot tall and I really wish the UFC would measure their fighters properly because it does make it harder to make a pick.

Pick: Beck Rawlings to beat Lisa Ellis at -162. 4 Units (CORRECT). +2.48 units profit
I was on and off this pick because I don’t think Bec is the greatest fighter. I doubt I will ever be picking her to win again but this went totally as expected. Bec broke Lisa’s will and dominated her due to being bigger and stronger. In general I believe there is good value to be had in betting on women’s fights. They are more rudimentary in their skillsets at this point (as you would exect from a growing part of the sport), which means there are more “styles make fights” picks to be made… On the other hand a lot of high level men’s MMA is becoming two very similar fighters fighting eachother, which leaves the results more down to things which are harder to quantify, such as chin / power.

Those were my only two straight up picks. The rest was all in parlays.

Parlay 1 Total +1301. 2 units bet for total profit of +26 units.
Vick to beat Matthews (+159)
Hunt vs Miocic over 1.5 rounds (-175)
Grujic vs O’Reilly over 2.5 rounds (-140)
Rawlings to beat Ellis (-162)
Alvey to beat Kelly (-389)

In reality I would have bet on a KO for Alvey and a decision for Grujic vs O’Reilly, which were both close to evens so it would probably have been more like +2500, but those odds were not available before I went away for the weekend and had to place my picks on CapperTek. Still, you can’t complain about +1300 🙂

Parlay 2 1.5 units bet at +363. (LOST)
Dylan Andrews vs Brad Scott goes to Decision (+105) (LOST)
Robert Whittaker vs Brad Tavares goes to Decision (-135) (LOST)
Anthony Pettis to beat Miles Jury (-337) (FIGHT HAS BEEN CANCELLED)

This one didn’t go very well 🙂 Basically the only thing I got wrong in my breakdowns is that I said Whittaker is probably more of a points fighter. He went balls out for the KO in this fight. That’s another good bit of information for future predictions, as Whittaker had recently gone up in weight. I did say that Tavares was hitable and that there was a decent chance of a knockout… If this fight happened 10 times, who knows… I think maybe 4 or 5 times out of 10 it goes to a decision.

Andrews vs Scott was pretty much going as I expected before the sub out of nowhere in R2. People were saying Andrews’ chin was shot to bits because he lost his last 2 by TKO. It’s not and anyone that said that hasn’t watched his fights. He got KO’d by Sam Alvey, which means precisely nothing at all. The fight before that he didn’t lose by TKO, his shoulder came out and he faught half a round with it just hanging there and didn’t even get rocked. 7/10 times, I maintain this fight does go to a decision.

Parlay 3: 2 units bet +482 (LOST)

Andrews vs Scott goes to decision (+105) (LOST)
Rawlings beats Ellis (-162) (CORRECT)
Sam Alvey inside distance (-130) (CORRECT)

As stated above, I think this comes off more often than not but that’s just how it goes! 🙂

So, overall after 2 events we’re at +52 units, which is better than a some of the more prominent MMA tipsters have made in 2 years. I am sure I will hit a skid at some point, particularly if I keep going for big parlays, so I may tone that down a bit… we’ll see. As I say, this is all a fantastic learning experience. I’m really enjoying the whole process so far, though it is very time consuming. I would estimate I watched 30-35 hours of fight tape just for the last event. That’s the sort of thing you need to do if you are going to be successful at this.

I’ve stated this elsewhere but I think some tipsters are just guessing a lot of the time, based on records. I’ve seen some statements made by tipsters that are just flat out wrong and show they haven’t watched tape at all. So my warning to anyone out there looking for picks – mainly go off profits on CapperTek because you cannot fix that. Ideally follow people who make a sensible sounding prediction but actually watch the fight afterwards and see if what they said makes sense. Some people make very elloquent arguments that are completely wrong.

Anyway, thanks for the read and for your time.