MMA Betting - Favorites vs Underdogs, which is better?!?!
When betting on MMA should you bet on the favorites or the underdogs? This page continually updates with all major MMA / UFC fights. We'll have a look at simply betting on all favorites or underdogs, we'll break things down by the position on the fight card and we'll look at all levels of underdog / favorite to see what sort of odds over / under-perform their predicted win percentage.
Note, these results use best available odds at either the time the lines closed, just before the fight, or around 7 hours before the first fight of the night, where possible (events after 7th Nov 2014). Of course, if you bet several days / weeks before the fight, you'll get different odds.
MMA / UFC Betting - Favorite vs Underdog Returns over Time
The following MMA stats are based on a $10 bet on the favourite / underdog for every fight on the card.
% Win Chance: A conversion of the bookmaker's odds into their % probability of a win for fighters in this odds range. % Won: The percentage of fighters that actually won in that odds range. Avg % Win Chance: The average bookmaker odds for the fighters in this odds range. = Odds of: Avg % Win Chance converted into odds format. Over / Under Perform: Here we compare the Avg % Win Chance (i.e. what percentage of the fights the bookmaker says these fighters should win), with how many actually won. Over performing means more fighters are winning in this odds bracket than should and under performing (negative number) means this odds range under performs and would not be good to bet on.
% Win Chance
=Odds
Fights
Won
Lost
% Won
% Won
Avg % Win Chance
= Odds
Over / Under Perform
Bet $10 on
all fights (ROI)
<10%
+900
28
4
24
14%
8%
+1,132
6%
$213 (76%)
10-15%
+900 to +567
139
11
128
8%
13%
+686
-5%
$-526 (-38%)
15-20%
+567 to +400
279
43
236
15%
18%
+470
-2%
$-338 (-12%)
20-25%
+400 to +300
442
78
364
18%
22%
+351
-5%
$-904 (-20%)
25-30%
+300 to +233
605
160
445
26%
27%
+265
-1%
$-217 (-4%)
30-35%
+233 to +186
707
232
475
33%
33%
+206
0%
$38 (1%)
35-40%
+186 to +150
786
309
477
39%
37%
+168
2%
$422 (5%)
40-45%
+150 to +122
926
405
521
44%
42%
+138
2%
$360 (4%)
45-50%
+122 to +100
661
317
344
48%
47%
+112
1%
$102 (2%)
50-55%
+100 to -122
828
423
405
51%
52%
-110
-1%
$-192 (-2%)
55-60%
-122 to -150
825
453
372
55%
58%
-137
-3%
$-416 (-5%)
60-65%
-150 to -186
844
504
340
60%
62%
-166
-3%
$-372 (-4%)
65-70%
-186 to -233
741
498
243
67%
68%
-208
-0%
$-40 (-1%)
70-75%
-233 to -300
518
372
146
72%
72%
-262
-1%
$-42 (-1%)
75-80%
-300 to -400
473
374
99
79%
77%
-334
2%
$131 (3%)
80-85%
-400 to -567
374
323
51
86%
82%
-461
4%
$190 (5%)
85-90%
-567 to -900
156
133
23
85%
87%
-675
-2%
$-33 (-2%)
90% +
-900
67
62
5
93%
92%
-1,105
1%
$6 (1%)
4701
4698
You can see there's a dead zone in terms of slight to fairly significant favorites under performing compared to their suggested win percentage. I would suggest this is market forces, whereby bettors are putting money on slight favorites and pushing out their odds beyond what should really be a pickem fight. As a result, betting on slight to fairly signifincant underdogs is massively more productive and successful. As it stands now, you could blindly bet on all dogs in this range and make money, so with that a base to your logic, if you are handicapping fights, this is a great place to start!
Massive favorites are currently slightly outperforming their odds but with such fine margins, it's super important to get the best odds possible. Casually betting on big favorites with one bookmaker and not shopping around, would likely end up losing you money.
Winner Odds By Card Position
Draws and NCs have been excluded.
Position
Fights
Fav Wins
%
Dog Wins
%
Avg Odds (Winner)
Fav | Dog
$10 on all Favs
$10 on all Dogs
Main Event
520
361
69%
159
31%
-113
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-416 (ROI: -8%)
Co Main
496
317
64%
179
36%
-109
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$118 (ROI: 2%)
3
484
330
68%
154
32%
-113
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-441 (ROI: -9%)
4
485
345
71%
140
29%
-112
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-642 (ROI: -13%)
5
463
326
70%
137
30%
-110
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-746 (ROI: -16%)
6
428
293
68%
135
32%
-108
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-364 (ROI: -9%)
7
395
284
72%
111
28%
-115
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-851 (ROI: -22%)
8
425
295
69%
130
31%
-105
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-481 (ROI: -11%)
9
382
263
69%
119
31%
-111
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-641 (ROI: -17%)
10
375
261
70%
114
30%
-104
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-558 (ROI: -15%)
11
335
225
67%
110
33%
-103
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-223 (ROI: -7%)
12
241
171
71%
70
29%
-118
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-535 (ROI: -22%)
13
116
82
71%
34
29%
-121
$inf (ROI: inf%)
$-251 (ROI: -22%)
MMA Handicapper Directory Performance
Tracking all handicappers in our MMA Handicapper directory, here is their performance on underdogs vs favorites. Big favorite constitutes a higher than 65% chance of winning, according to the bookmaker odds. Big underdog is less than 35%.
Picks
Correct
% Correct
Units Bet
Units Profit
Profit per Pick
ROI
Big Favorites
88876 (18%)
65296
73%
347,452.77
6,906.04
0.08
2%
Slight Favorites
167435 (34%)
94532
56%
461,238.26
-12,656.00
-0.08
-3%
Slight Underdogs
164245 (34%)
72848
44%
350,499.30
13,483.92
0.08
4%
Big Underdogs
68157 (14%)
18800
28%
116,287.60
-261.12
-0.00
-0%
Conclusion
So which is better? Well the UFC Fight Night - Mir vs. Bigfoot event was the biggest upset event in MMA history. Of 11 fights, 10 underdogs won, taking the bookmakers to the cleaners! In general, our period of events so far has been much more favorable to underdogs than normal. In general, according to MMA Junkie, 31.5% of underdogs won in 2014 (UFC fights only). Whereas under our system so far, that stands at
34%. Of the fights we picked, that's even higher, at nan%.
This page will continue to update automatically, so check back at any time for the latest statistic of which is better to pick in UFC / MMA fights: underdogs or favorites.
Notes & Donations
Althought the stats pages are programmed to update automatically, the base information is all added manually. If you noticed I've missed off a debut, or incorrectly marked a fighter as a debut, please let me know on twitter or facebook.
If these stats have helped you, or if you just appreciate the effort, you're more than welcome to donate. Any small amount is greatly appreciated! :)