MMA Handicapper Stats: MMA Model |
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MMA Model: Event by Event Predictions |
The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)
Date |
Event |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight Picks |
Props |
Parlays |
6th Mar '21 |
UFC 259 |
45 |
-2.8 |
-6% |
-7.0 / 20 (-35%) |
-5.0 / 5 (-100%) |
9.2 / 20 (46%) |
13th Feb '21 |
UFC 258 |
13 |
7.2 |
56% |
|
|
7.2 / 13 (56%) |
25th Jul '20 |
UFC Fight Island 3 |
15 |
5.7 |
38% |
5.7 / 15 (38%) |
|
|
25th Jul '20 |
Bellator 242 |
3.75 |
3.0 |
80% |
3.0 / 3.75 (80%) |
|
|
11th Jul '20 |
UFC 251 |
50 |
35.5 |
71% |
15.3 / 46 (33%) |
|
20.3 / 4 (507%) |
14th May '20 |
UFC Fight Night 170 |
16 |
-9.8 |
-61% |
-4.0 / 4 (-100%) |
-5.8 / 12 (-48%) |
|
10th May '20 |
UFC 249 |
20 |
-11.9 |
-59% |
-7.9 / 16 (-49%) |
|
-4.0 / 4 (-100%) |
14th Mar '20 |
UFC Fight Night 169 |
15.5 |
-10.2 |
-66% |
-2.7 / 8 (-34%) |
-7.5 / 7.5 (-100%) |
|
8th Mar '20 |
UFC 248 |
39.5 |
-36.4 |
-92% |
-11.9 / 15 (-79%) |
-21.5 / 21.5 (-100%) |
-3.0 / 3 (-100%) |
29th Feb '20 |
UFC Fight Night |
11 |
-5.4 |
-49% |
-3.4 / 9 (-38%) |
|
-2.0 / 2 (-100%) |
22nd Feb '20 |
UFC Fight Night 168 |
22.5 |
7.3 |
32% |
6.5 / 17 (38%) |
|
0.8 / 5.5 (15%) |
18th Jan '20 |
UFC 246 |
34 |
-15.2 |
-45% |
-1.4 / 14 (-10%) |
2.2 / 4 (56%) |
-16.0 / 16 (-100%) |
15th Dec '19 |
UFC 245 |
28.75 |
36.0 |
125% |
10.1 / 13.75 (74%) |
|
25.8 / 15 (172%) |
17th Aug '19 |
UFC 241 |
26.6 |
-4.1 |
-15% |
-7.1 / 18.6 (-38%) |
-1.0 / 1 (-100%) |
4.0 / 7 (57%) |
10th Aug '19 |
UFC Fight Night 156 |
14.7 |
1.4 |
10% |
-0.9 / 10.7 (-8%) |
|
2.3 / 4 (59%) |
3rd Aug '19 |
UFC on ESPN 5 |
19.2 |
-0.7 |
-4% |
-0.7 / 19.2 (-4%) |
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27th Jul '19 |
UFC 240 |
19 |
-3.2 |
-17% |
-3.2 / 19 (-17%) |
|
|
24th Jul '19 |
DWCS 21 |
2 |
-2.0 |
-100% |
-2.0 / 2 (-100%) |
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|
20th Jul '19 |
UFC on ESPN 4 |
28.9 |
-4.5 |
-16% |
-7.5 / 26.9 (-28%) |
3.0 / 2 (150%) |
|
13th Jul '19 |
UFC Fight Night 155 |
9.65 |
7.5 |
78% |
7.5 / 9.65 (78%) |
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10th Jul '19 |
DWTNCS 19 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
88% |
2.2 / 2.5 (88%) |
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6th Jul '19 |
UFC 239 |
2 |
-2.0 |
-100% |
-2.0 / 2 (-100%) |
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Winning Events: 9 (41%) Losing Events: 13 (59%)
Average Staked Per Event: 19.93 units Most Staked On One Event: 50.00 units Best Event: 35.97 units Worst Event: -36.39 units Average Event: -0.10 units
Max Win Streak: Events: 4, Units: 51.48 Max Losing Streak: Events: 5, Units: -73.62 |
MMA Model: Year on Year Profit |
Year |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Events
Won / Lost
(%) |
Profit
Per Event |
2021 |
58 |
4.4 |
8% |
-7.0 / 20 (-35%) |
-5.0 / 5 (-100%) |
16.5 / 33 (50%) |
1 / 1 (50%) |
2.22 |
2020 |
227.25 |
-37.3 |
-16% |
-0.8 / 147.75 (-1%) |
-32.6 / 45 (-72%) |
-3.9 / 34.5 (-11%) |
4 / 6 (40%) |
-3.73 |
2019 |
153.3 |
30.6 |
20% |
-3.5 / 124.3 (-3%) |
2.0 / 3 (67%) |
32.2 / 26 (124%) |
4 / 6 (40%) |
3.06 |
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MMA Model: Yearly Straight Pick Stats |
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MMA Model: Profit / Loss by Organization |
Organization |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight Picks |
Props |
Parlays |
UFC |
430.3 |
-5.4 |
-1% |
-14.6 / 283.8 (-5%) |
-35.6 / 53 (-67%) |
44.7 / 93.5 (48%) |
Bellator |
3.75 |
3.0 |
80% |
3.0 / 3.75 (80%) |
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|
Other |
4.5 |
0.2 |
4% |
0.2 / 4.5 (4%) |
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MMA Model: Straight Pick Stats |
Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
Big Favorites |
17 (22%) |
14 |
82 % |
80.50 |
19.33 |
1.14 |
24% |
Slight Favorites |
33 (43%) |
16 |
48 % |
135.30 |
-17.79 |
-0.54 |
-13% |
Slight Underdogs |
20 (26%) |
8 |
40 % |
59.25 |
-16.63 |
-0.83 |
-28% |
Big Underdogs |
7 (9%) |
2 |
29 % |
17.00 |
3.70 |
0.53 |
22% |
Betting Stats By Card Position
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
Main Event |
13 (17%) |
7 |
54 % |
49.40 |
-0.83 |
-0.06 |
-2% |
Co-Main Event |
11 (14%) |
7 |
64 % |
37.60 |
2.69 |
0.24 |
7% |
Position 3-5 |
19 (25%) |
10 |
53 % |
82.00 |
-5.09 |
-0.27 |
-6% |
6+ (Undercard) |
34 (44%) |
16 |
47 % |
123.05 |
-8.16 |
-0.24 |
-7% |
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MMA Model: Profit by Weight Class |
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
Heavyweight |
5 (6%) |
3 |
60 % |
20.00 |
5.74 |
1.15 |
29% |
Light Heavy |
4 (5%) |
2 |
50 % |
10.75 |
-4.67 |
-1.17 |
-43% |
Middleweight |
5 (6%) |
2 |
40 % |
16.50 |
-2.97 |
-0.59 |
-18% |
Welterweight |
18 (23%) |
11 |
61 % |
67.25 |
7.95 |
0.44 |
12% |
Lightweight |
9 (12%) |
4 |
44 % |
43.00 |
-1.85 |
-0.21 |
-4% |
Featherweight |
10 (13%) |
6 |
60 % |
41.25 |
12.57 |
1.26 |
30% |
Bantamweight |
9 (12%) |
4 |
44 % |
35.85 |
-10.84 |
-1.20 |
-30% |
Flyweight |
6 (8%) |
3 |
50 % |
22.45 |
-6.58 |
-1.10 |
-29% |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Women's Fights |
11 (14%) |
5 |
45 % |
35.00 |
-10.74 |
-0.98 |
-31% |
Featherweight |
1 (1%) |
1 |
100 % |
4.00 |
1.60 |
1.60 |
40% |
Bantamweight |
5 (6%) |
1 |
20 % |
18.00 |
-10.80 |
-2.16 |
-60% |
Flyweight |
1 (1%) |
1 |
100 % |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
100% |
Strawweight |
4 (5%) |
2 |
50 % |
12.00 |
-2.54 |
-0.63 |
-21% |
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Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays) |
Straight picks within parlays
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Big Favorites |
37 (70%) |
32 |
86 % |
Slight Favorites |
8 (15%) |
3 |
38 % |
Slight Underdogs |
6 (11%) |
3 |
50 % |
Big Underdogs |
2 (4%) |
0 |
0 % |
|
53 |
38 |
72 % |
Props bets and props within parlays
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
>65% chance |
6 (13%) |
5 |
83 % |
50-65% |
10 (22%) |
6 |
60 % |
35-50% |
8 (17%) |
3 |
38 % |
<35% chance |
22 (48%) |
3 |
14 % |
|
46 |
17 |
37 % |
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Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types |
* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %. |
Tail MMA Model's bets |
If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...
This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.
Date |
Event |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Fee |
1 unit = |
Start |
End |
6th Jul |
UFC 239 |
2 |
-2.0 |
-100% |
$2 |
$10.00 |
$1,000.00 |
$978.00 |
10th Jul |
DWTNCS 19 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
88% |
|
$9.78 |
$978.00 |
$999.47 |
13th Jul |
UFC Fight Night 155 |
9.65 |
7.5 |
78% |
|
$9.99 |
$999.47 |
$1,074.93 |
20th Jul |
UFC on ESPN 4 |
28.9 |
-4.5 |
-16% |
$2 |
$10.75 |
$1,074.93 |
$1,024.56 |
24th Jul |
DWCS 21 |
2 |
-2.0 |
-100% |
$2 |
$10.25 |
$1,024.56 |
$1,002.07 |
27th Jul |
UFC 240 |
19 |
-3.2 |
-17% |
$2 |
$10.02 |
$1,002.07 |
$968.40 |
3rd Aug |
UFC on ESPN 5 |
19.2 |
-0.7 |
-4% |
|
$9.68 |
$968.40 |
$961.14 |
10th Aug |
UFC Fight Night 156 |
14.7 |
1.4 |
10% |
$2 |
$9.61 |
$961.14 |
$972.99 |
17th Aug |
UFC 241 |
26.6 |
-4.1 |
-15% |
$2 |
$9.73 |
$972.99 |
$930.98 |
15th Dec |
UFC 245 |
28.75 |
36.0 |
125% |
$2 |
$9.31 |
$930.98 |
$1,263.89 |
18th Jan |
UFC 246 |
34 |
-15.2 |
-45% |
|
$12.64 |
$1,263.89 |
$1,071.94 |
22nd Feb |
UFC Fight Night 168 |
22.5 |
7.3 |
32% |
|
$10.72 |
$1,071.94 |
$1,149.69 |
29th Feb |
UFC Fight Night |
11 |
-5.4 |
-49% |
|
$11.50 |
$1,149.69 |
$1,087.61 |
8th Mar |
UFC 248 |
39.5 |
-36.4 |
-92% |
|
$10.88 |
$1,087.61 |
$691.84 |
14th Mar |
UFC Fight Night 169 |
15.5 |
-10.2 |
-66% |
|
$6.92 |
$691.84 |
$621.32 |
10th May |
UFC 249 |
20 |
-11.9 |
-59% |
$2 |
$6.21 |
$621.32 |
$545.65 |
14th May |
UFC Fight Night 170 |
16 |
-9.8 |
-61% |
|
$5.46 |
$545.65 |
$492.30 |
11th Jul |
UFC 251 |
50 |
35.5 |
71% |
|
$4.92 |
$492.30 |
$667.25 |
25th Jul |
Bellator 242 |
3.75 |
3.0 |
80% |
|
$6.67 |
$667.25 |
$687.27 |
25th Jul |
UFC Fight Island 3 |
15 |
5.7 |
38% |
|
$6.87 |
$687.27 |
$726.44 |
13th Feb |
UFC 258 |
13 |
7.2 |
56% |
|
$7.26 |
$726.44 |
$779.02 |
6th Mar |
UFC 259 |
45 |
-2.8 |
-6% |
|
$7.79 |
$779.02 |
$757.17 |
ROI % from starting bank balance: -24.28% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now. |
MMA Model: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks) |
Last 20 Wins
|
Date |
Straight Pick |
Opponent |
Odds |
Bet |
Result |
|
|
1. |
Mar '21 |
Uros Medic |
Aalon Cruz |
1.59 |
3 |
TKO, R1 (1:40) |
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|
2. |
Mar '21 |
Tim Elliott |
Jordan Espinosa |
1.91 |
2 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
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|
3. |
Mar '21 |
Dominick Cruz |
Casey Kenney |
2.20 |
2 |
Split Decision (3 rounds) |
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|
4. |
Jul '20 |
Jason Jackson |
Jordan Mein |
1.80 |
3.75 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
5. |
Jul '20 |
Jesse Ronson |
Nicolas Dalby |
3.20 |
3 |
Sub, R1 (2:48) |
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|
6. |
Jul '20 |
Fabricio Werdum |
Alexander Gustafsson |
3.70 |
3 |
Sub, R1 (2:30) |
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|
7. |
Jul '20 |
Makwan Amirkhani |
Danny Henry |
1.54 |
10 |
Sub, R1 (3:15) |
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|
8. |
Jul '20 |
Leonardo Santos |
Roman Bogatov |
1.59 |
10 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
9. |
Jul '20 |
Alex Volkanovski |
Max Holloway |
1.43 |
7 |
Split Decision (5 rounds) |
|
|
10. |
Jul '20 |
Petr Yan |
Jose Aldo |
1.43 |
6 |
TKO, R5 (3:24) |
|
|
11. |
Jul '20 |
Kamaru Usman |
Jorge Masvidal |
1.42 |
8 |
U Decision (5 rounds) |
|
|
12. |
May '20 |
Francis Ngannou |
Jairzinho Rozenstruik |
1.36 |
6 |
TKO, R1 (0:20) |
|
|
13. |
Mar '20 |
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos |
Alexey Kunchenko |
1.77 |
3 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
14. |
Mar '20 |
Weili Zhang |
Joanna Jedrzejczyk |
1.56 |
2 |
Split Decision (5 rounds) |
|
|
15. |
Feb '20 |
Megan Anderson |
Norma Dumont |
1.40 |
4 |
TKO, R1 (3:31) |
|
|
16. |
Feb '20 |
Jalin Turner |
Joshua Culibao |
1.50 |
5 |
TKO, R2 (3:1) |
|
|
17. |
Feb '20 |
Zubaira Tukhugov |
Kevin Aguilar |
2.00 |
2 |
TKO, R1 (3:21) |
|
|
18. |
Feb '20 |
Angela Hill |
Loma Lookboonmee |
1.59 |
4 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
19. |
Feb '20 |
Kai Kara-France |
Tyson Nam |
1.40 |
4 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
20. |
Jan '20 |
Carlos Diego Ferreira |
Anthony Pettis |
1.42 |
6 |
Sub, R2 (1:46) |
|
|
Last 20 Losses
* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision. |
MMA Model: Progress Chart |
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