I’ve thought about writing a mini bloglett about a particular issue that bugs me with MMA commentary. Let’s pretend we’re in the midst of a wild exchange; one fighter will get rocked but the other can’t quite put them out. The commentators are going wild “what a chin on x! He just won’t go down!”
Now, more often than not, if you hear a commentator shout that someone has a great chin, they don’t have a good chin at all, they have good heart or recoverability, which is a very different thing.
The example that always springs to mind for me is Yancy Medeiros. That guy does not have a good chin – he gets rocked by all sorts of mid-power shots. Check the Trinaldo fight for example. Dude will not go down but he gets rocked again and again from shots that, if he did have a good chin, he’d just have eaten like they were nothing.
If you want to find someone who actually has a good chin, they don’t get rocked in the first place. They don’t get into fire fights just because they got hit. They don’t drop to a knee… Basically they look as un-dramatic as is possible to look. Big shots land and they don’t look like big shots. It’s your job to ignore the hyperbole of commentary and just assess how big a shot actually is. If it got no reaction from the commentary team, all the better because you’re seeing something that the average Joe Shmoe isn’t. Bank that info, because that’s how you make money.
Some fighters who actually have a good chin:
Now, personally I don’t like to bet on people to lose by TKO because I think there’s a bit too much luck involved, especially if they do have heart. The point really is twofold: If the commentary team says someone has a good chin, immediately make a mental note that they probably don’t have a good chin at all.
Then in general, pay special attention to the people who get through their whole fights without any moments of chaos and without any specific praise from the commentators. Those people are money because you’re taking one of the three options off the table for a possible loss, if they’re not going to get KO’d. Even if you think they’re probably going to lose a particular fight, you’ve still got the option to bet the over, a not ITD prop for their opponent, or decision win for their opponent. I guess the operative word is “reliability” and for me, that’s the #1 important trait for any betting.