Category Archives: MMA Betting Picks

UFC Fighters To Watch In 2017 (Part 2)

I asked anyone on the site if they wanted to contribute their own thoughts in terms of fighters to watch this year. Response was thoroughly underwhelming but never mind! 🙂 One person who put a lot of effort into their list was MMA Prophet, so here is his full email. At the end I’ll also include one other good reply I got.

It’s no surprise that MMA Prophet is currently 2nd top in terms of sales on the site. When you put effort in like this into a writeup, people appreciate that. Follow him and buy his picks! 🙂

Note: he sent me this on 8th January.

MMA Prophet
79.19 units profit, 29% ROI

Ranked fighters who will push on to the top of the division:

Flyweight

Ray Borg: Young/Talented Grappler who made the transition to Jackson Wink MMA. The sky is the limit for him and he has all the time in the world to get there at only 23 years of age. He also just thrashed Smolka. Once he gets his striking to that next level he will be a feared top-level contender.

Featherweight

Mirsad Bektic: He’s a killer with great wrestling, KO power and the skills to submit his opponents. He is undefeated and that’s for a reason. He also trains with American Top Team and the sky is truly the limit for him. Can’t wait to see what he can do.

Welterweight

Jorge Masvidal: One of the most undervalued ranked fighters to ever grace the octagon. He doesn’t really get finished and when he loses it’s a really competitive match up and arguable the fight could go either way. The guy is super well rounded and trains with killers at American Top Team. One of his main training partners is Colby Covington as well and if that wrestling knowledge and grit rubs off in any way on Jorge it makes him an even more lethal threat. I predict he beats Cerrone pretty decisively and steals Cowboys thunder. Cerrone doesn’t respond well to pressure and I’m sure Masvidal will bring the heat. He will be top 5 at the very least.

2nd picks

Lorenz Larkin: Phenomenal striker, I hope he stays in the UFC but a match up like him vs Gunnar Nelson could be interesting to see who is more deserving to ascend. Grappler vs striker, will Gunnar be able to out power Larkin and take him to the mat? I would love to see this matchup

Gunnar Nelson: Great grappler, improving striking, if he can get opponents to the mat it’s over (Besides Maia 😉 ).

Light Heavyweight

Misha Circunov: Amazing grappler with ever improving takedowns and striking. His performances have been extremely dominant and in 2 fights I think we could see him easily ranked #3. He has a good fight IQ, is measured and finds ways to win. *Also* He picked Grab and Nunes to win their last match ups, this may be irrelevant but he understands what people bring to the table and I like that.

Heavyweight: 

Francis Ngannou: He’s not human. He’s at a level where his sheer power can overcome skills his opponent poses. He has great stand up, he has shown he can submit people and he’s just an all round finisher. Next year he should break top 5 and maybe even fight for the belt. This is the kind of guy that could become a huge draw because of his physical attributes (like an Arnold Schwarzenegger) and UFC matchmaking should give him some good match ups to get to the top.

Women’s Strawweight

Jessica Andrade: A powerful tank of a girl with lethal standup. When she hits girls they don’t know what to do, much like an Amanda Nunes. Since moving down to strawweight it seems as though the sky is the limit for her. With her power as well it makes it easy for her to outwrestle opponents and make them pay with vicious ground and pound.

Michelle Waterson: Waterson is an extremely skilled striker and grappler who trains with an amazing team at Jackson Wink MMA. I feel like Waterson can make a big run for the strawweight belt but if she’s paired up with Andrade it would be a tough matchup for her. Waterson may out skill Andrade in kicks and BJJ but when it comes to boxing and wrestling I’m giving the edge to Andrade and that could be the difference. I see them both being top 5 or top 3 in the near future.

Just outside the rankings who will push into the rankings:

Heavyweight

Curtis Blaydes: Great wrestling, improving striking, and a big powerful heavyweight. His only loss is to Francis Ngannou who’s one of my favourite ranked fighters to break into the top 5 for the HW division.

Light Heavyweight

Jarrod Cannonier: Since his move from heavyweight to light heavyweight he has looked really sharp and has defeated top a prospect in Ion Cutelaba who’s only loss was to my top prospect Misha Circunov. At Heavyweight he gave Cyril Asker his first loss by KO and that dudes head is ginormous, which is usually indicative of a grant chin. His chin is good but that shot Cannonier delivered was something else. Cannonier has crisp powerful strikes, decent wrestling and positional control and above all he doesn’t like to take damage. He’s got a big test ahead of him taking on Glover Teixeira who is ranked #3, if Cannonier finds a way to beat his relatively chinny opponent he will find himself ranked just like that. Not to mention the light heavyweight division is pretty shallow so it shouldn’t be an issue.

Welterweight

Santiago Ponzinibbio: Lethal striker with great accuracy and takedown defense. To tell you the truth I’m shocked that he isn’t ranked yet. He is on a 3 fight win streak and needs to dispatch of Nordine Taleb to prove he’s a real contender in that stacked division of killers. Nordine is a much stiffer striker, has fought worse competition and has had some close calls where Santiago has lost to great people and beat some killers as well. We will definitely see him ranked soon.

Flyweight

Ben Nguyen: Lethal striker with pinpoint accuracy, he was on a tear until Smolka derailed him with outstanding grappling and ground and pound in the scrambles. That was a mistake from a young fighter but since then he has hired a mental coach and had a dominant victory over Geane Herrera who had fought the better competition out of the teo. If he fights Smolka again I would easily pick Ben to win and he should keep the fight standing or scramble to his feet. If that fight does happen they basically swap ranks and my prophecy comes into fruition.

Lightweight

Will Brooks: He’s a dominant wrestler with solid striking and he trains with the killers at American Top Team. He suffered his first loss in 3 years recently to Alex Oliveira who missed weight by 10 lbs and cracked Brooks’ rib during the fight. Will was arguably winning the grappling exchanges, even with a 10 lb deficit but the pain from his rib injury proved to be too much. All that aside he was a dominant champion in balloter and I see him busting into the rankings in the UFC real soon.

Newbies who looks like prospects:

 Flyweight

Jenel Lausa: Excellent technical Muay Thai striker with a decent enough ground game to defend and even maintain top pressure. He has some serious KO power for the weight class and he’s also shown he can be measured and do what it takes to win a 3 rounder against someone who stricktly wants to take him down.

Featherweight

Shane Burgos: He trains with the likes of Jimmie Rivera and has showed he can hang with UFC fighters as well. Solid submission and smart technical stand up. Room for improvement but I see him climbing the ranks and becoming a contender.

Lightweight

Alex Volkanovski: Talented all round fighter who is a proven finisher. He was a dominant champion in another organization and his debut in the Octagon was long overdue.

Marc Diakese: He has looked great in his last two performances. What he lacks in striking he makes up for in powerful grappling capabilities. He shows everything a coach would want in a fighter to be able to mold them into an even more lethal weapon.

Drakkar Klose: His octagon debut is coming up at UFC Phoenix and it should be a dominant performance from the footage I’ve seen. He’s composed, sharp and has some serious power.

Welterweight

Abdul Razak Alhassan: KO wizard. None of his fights have made it past the 2-minute mark and he’s in it to win it. Looks like a physical specimen so with the right team and coaching the sky is the limit for young Abdul.

Middleweight

Andrew Sanchez: He’s shown he is a great grappler and does what’s necessary to control and win the fight. In his last fight he showed off a bit of his striking and beat a legit UFC vet in Trevor Smith who was on a 2 fight win streak. With the right training the sky is the limit.

Gerald Meerschaert: Another long overdue arrival into the UFC with a record of 25 and 8 (only 2 of those wins going the distance) and with past victories over the likes of Sam Alvey and Joe Gigliotti. He’s on a 6 fight win streak and has never been knocked out. He showed great grappling and submission skills against Gigliotti and should have a decent future in the UFC with some bumps along the way.

Heavyweight

Justin Ledet: He’s shown great work in the Octagon so far, utilizing his jab and even showing of some of his underrated BJJ. The guy is small for the heavy weight division but he still packs a punch and makes up for it with agility and slick boxing technique. Even if he loses or makes the drop to light heavyweight I see a cool career ahead of him. Very entertaining fighter.

People I think will fade away and we should bet against:

Michael Bisping: (If he ever fights a top 4 Middleweight again lol) he’s getting old and taken a lot of damage. He has children and other career opportunities as well. When Michael loses again he will most likely retire or only come back for super fights if the money is right.

Johnny Hendricks: Severe decline/USADA.

Anthony Pettis: Severe decline and head seems to be elsewhere.

Thiago Santos: Incredibly chinny with bad fight IQ.

Mike Pyle: Incredibly chinny and old.

Gian Villante: Terrible fight IQ and cardio, he doesn’t seem like he want this as much as his opponents.

Raphael Natal: Terrible fight IQ, old, and regressing.

Cole Miller: Head is no longer in the game.

Mid-level career resurgence:

Tim Elliot: We saw his performance against Mighty Mouse, giving him one of his most difficult tests to date. Tim Elliot may never become champ but he does have all the tools and skills to become a top contender.

Demian Maia: For obvious reasons, he’s already going through it technically.

Junior Dos Santos: They have put a really easy fight in front of him with Stephan Struve and Junior is deadly to anyone in the Heavyweight division.

Eddie Wineland: This is a maybe and it really is dependent on the match ups they give him. He has the potential to win his next 2 but I don’t see him gunning for that belt again given his poor defensive striking style. All that said I think he can win one or two more depending on the matchup.

The following is from Jonathan Murray
9.52 units profit, 22% ROI.

To Follow:
Jessica Andrade: I believe she’s going to have a breakthrough year this year. I would go as far as to say that she will be the first fighter to defeat Joanna champion should she get the opportunity.

Excellent boxing mixed with strong grappling. Having been a relatively competitive undersized 135lb’er. She’s moved on in leaps and bounds since comfortably getting to 115lbs. We know she’s durable as hell and willing to take some contact to improve her position.

I think she may be a slightly more polished version of Claudia Gadelha in the offensive grappling area. She also packs enough power and volume to potentially disrupt JJ’s rhythm.

I think she’s a great prospect at 25 and has many good years ahead of her.

To Fade:
James Gallagher
John Kavanagh’s second coming of Conor. He’s not. Not even close. I believe there’s much more hype than substance to Gallagher and personally can see him evaporating into lower level MMA shows than Bellator.

He’s a long way from the finished article and for all the bravado and talk about his ground game, he struggles to apply it against low-mid tier opposition. He’s not a great striker and has almost a one dimensional game.

He might have McGregor’s swagger and self confidence, but it’s as misplaced as claims that Cathal Pendred could be a great striker because he trained in the same gym as McGregor.

Gallagher seems to have concentrated more on marketing than the thing that will actually matter. Performance. For that reason I’m waiting on him to get some proper opposition so I can bet against him. This one is all about timing I think.

UFC Fighters to Watch in 2017

I was a little unsure whether to post this blog because it kinda pisses on itself… If I go telling people who I think are good fighters (and particularly underrated fighters), then the lines probably aren’t going to be as good. In the end I thought there are enough people doing this that this will get lost in the fog and really, I’m not that important 😛

Breaking through level 1
People already in the top 15 UFC fighter rankings, who I expect to make a push for the top of the division.

Jessica Andrade USADA is the only thing that bothers me about this pick. That aside, I think she’ll get a title shot this year and I would not be the least bit surprised if Andrade absolutely demolishes Joanna Jedrzejczyk. I think she would have smashed Moroz, so hopefully they make that matchup again.
Ranked at #5 in the official UFC rankings. MMA Junkie only have her at #11 which is fucking ridiculous considering they have Alexa Grasso at #6.
Big power, impressive wrestling, a really solid gas tank and a good chin. She doesn’t really look any different to how she looked at 135lbs and she was contending with the top of the tree there. Much, much bigger girls like Pennington, who is a very good clinch fighter and an absolute grinder, who has had her breakout year this year.
Joanna has been rocked by people with a LOT less power than Andrade. Given her good gas tank, I find it hard to envisage JJ not getting smacked around at some point and JJ does not have power to deter the Andrade attacks. So that’s basically given away what I presume will be one of my picks at some point late in the year.
I just finished listening to The MMA Hour with Ariel Helwani giving out his end of year awards and predicting his end of year award winners for 2017 – Both he and his co-host predicted JJ as female fighter of 2017. I’m going with Andrade for mine (assuming she doesn’t get popped), so we shall see.
Misha Cirkunov A bit of a tricky one because it depends who he is matched up against. However, in an aging division, he’s someone I see making continued improvements and picking off a couple of the guys above him. If he gets matched up against Bader then possibly he gets wrestle-fucked but I don’t think that’s a bad matchup due to Bader’s chin. Gus looked poor in his last fight, OSP I think is a poor and massively overrated fighter, Manuwa would certainly test his chin but I’d favour Misha, Rua is pretty much done, Rumble would be an interesting fight but basically you get through the first round and a half and Rumble is there for the taking. I don’t think we’re looking at a title shot for Misha this year but a couple of competitive but impressive wins seems most likely.
This writeup could be written for Corey Anderson. The reason I haven’t gone for him is because he does look like he has a duff chin. Cirkunov looks like he has a good chin to me. His weakness is possibly his cardio, so I would want to see him perform well in a R3 before I get really confident but skills wise I think he’s legit.

Breaking through level 2
The following fighters are ranked outside the top 15 in their division but I believe will have a good year and stand a good chance of moving into that top 15.

Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman These two could be pretty interchangeable in terms of a writeup.  They would both merk a lot of guys in the top 15 and it’s a bit ridiculous that they’re not ranked already. I wouldn’t bet anyone outside of Woodley against either of them. I would definitely back them both to beat several of the top 15, though I’m not gunna say who in case those matchups get made 🙂
The knock on Covington was his standup. I actually think his standup has been pretty decent for a while (back as far as the Pyle fight) and people started to realise that a bit more in his last fight. My main problem with him is the stuff he says… he says a lot of dumb shit and that doesn’t fill me with much confidence in terms of decision making at the highest level.
Usman seems more level headed but perhaps a little less of a threat to be a finisher more long term. Again, the opportunity for prop betting the decision is there, particularly for Usman.
Justin Scoggins He lost his last fight against Munhoz but the guy is legit and that was a terrible matchup. His main problem is his lack of power but that also opens up opportunities for prop betting – Scoggins by unanimous decision.
Kevin Lee Dude is just good at stuff…. He’s good at taking you down and beating you up and he’s good enough at striking to hang with most people.
Rustam Khabilov …. by decision. Will probably wrestle-hump his way into the bottom of the top 15 where he’ll find his natural level but he’s just there to bet on by decision every time.
Santiago Ponzinibbio I’d kinda forgotten this guy existed till I had a look through the fightmatrix rankings site to see if I’d missed anyone. He’s older than I thought he was but still just about young enough to be making improvements as a semi-prospect. I would take him to beat at least 1/3 of the current top 15 at welterweight, which I think is probably the most inaccurate list in terms of actual talent at the weight.
Nordine Taleb He got a surprise KO in his last fight and if he’s added power to his game, that’s a massive bonus. A grinder in the mould of Covington but with a lower tempo… However, as very much an under the radar guy, it’s not so much I think he’s going to end up being a top 15 guy, I just think he’s going to offer value depending on the matchup.
Vicente Luque It’s possible that the impressive KOs will negate any value here. However, adding that power is something that has piqued my interest. At 25 he’s an interesting age. He’s showed poor defensive wrestling on TUF and in his loss to Michael Graves but I think that’s a hole he can fill in. I wouldn’t bet him against any dominant wrestler until we see for sure though.

Newbies
Could easily end up top 15 but more likely will just make a decent impression. Less fights and more question marks than the fighters above.

Tatiana Suarez She absolutely carved up the (decent level of) competition on TUF and in the finale. Impressive offensive grappling should be enough to pick off a lot of competition in this division. I’d have to remind myself of her standup, so that’s a possible hole.
Justin Ledet Another who could have gone in the breakthrough category. In a weak division we could easily see him zoom into the top 15 in one or two more fights. Very good striking and very good jiu jitsu but we’re yet to see his wrestling. There are a lot of big lumps at heavyweight so he could get wrestle-humped to a decision loss. He also doesn’t appear to have massive power. If he can make 205 then I’d say that was a better fit and he could be kind of like an upgraded Magnus Cedenblad. At 265lb I think the options are probably limited by his size but he’s someone I’ll be keeping an eye on.
Tyson Pedro Very little to go off but what he have seen looked impressive. A dominant grappler with power.
Matthew Lopez At this weight you kinda hit a brick wall in the top 5-8 fighters but this guy has a good all round game. He’s got nice scrambles and generally just a good, scrappy, fighter’s instinct.
Shane Burgos a Lando Vanatta-ish style perhaps in his debut (from recollection). Not the sort of fighter I like betting on because he’s a risk taker but he looked way ahead of the curve in terms of a debut fighter.

Quick Mentions & Turnarounds
Zak Cummings I think he’ll run the table on this vets season of TUF. I’m not sure he’ll do much beyond that but a season of TUF is worth a mention.
Lauren Murphy In a threadbare division, she’s been on the wrong end of some iffy decision and as such will be under-valued.
Nina Ansaroff It will be very interesting to see how she gets on this next event. Competitive fights against two good fighters in Lima and Kish but ultimately she showed tactical weakness in staying on bottom too long. She’s had a long layoff now and if she can display better takedown defense and a more urgent desire to scramble and escape, she could pick off 2 or 3 top 20 fighters.

Recapping UFC 186 – Johnson vs. Horiguchi betting analysis

In terms of the Wisdom of Crowds picks, after two negative events, we’re back in the positive, thanks to a 7 fold parlay coming off at +540.  This event was full of favorite winners. 11 of 12 fights in fact; the most since we started our system, making a parlay win all the more likely.

On individual fights we went 10-2 on predictions but unfortunately the big one didn’t come off. For the first time in a few events the system spat out a big bet on an underdog (Chris Clements). I had personally identified him as a live underdog, so I tentatively OK with the pick despite thinking that Taleb would more than likely win a decision. As it happens, that’s exactly what did happen and we took a big hit of -13.25 units from that fight. Getting another 9 fights right on bets only managed to claw half of that back and it was left to the parlay to save the day.

So how could we improve things?

– The system works on perceived value and doesn’t care whether something is high risk or not. That is both a strength and a weakness. Normally people would put a small bet on Clements if they thought he’d win…. but we put a whopping great bet on. In reality, when it’s a pickem fight with a lot better odds than pickem, that’s the right thing to do. Sometimes you’ll lose big but sometimes you’ll win REALLY big.

– WIth regards Clements vs Taleb in particular, I had made some changes to the equation that probably wouldn’t have seen us bet on Chris Clements but when I ran them, it absolutely decimated our profits from past events. I am confident it would be a better overall equation but that’s just my personal hunch and when the past results went from +240 to +100 units or something crazy like that, I felt it needed more data and just left the equations as they were for a bit longer.

A quick summary of my own predictions:

I personally went 3-0 on straight betting picks.

– Taleb would not win inside the distance.
– Cote to win.
– Laprice to win.

Taleb vs Clements basically went exactly like I expected. If anything Clements looked a bit worse. Cote vs Riggs was more competitive than i expected, as was the Laprice vs Barberena fight. I have no idea why Laprice gassed like he did and did not see that coming at all. I could see him dropping down to 145lbs as I can only assume he was struggling with his larger opponent’s size advantage.

In parlays, I was going for a 5 fold. 4 fights to go the decision and Bec Rawlings on the next event. 3 of 4 fights went to a decision and unfortunately I did what I tell people never to do when it comes to MMA betting – I added a fight into the parlay based on other people’s opinions (Kaufman vs Davis). I know virtually nothing about these two but everyone was saying it would be a decision. Sigh. All mine came off, this one didn’t. Never mind, I won’t do it again! 🙂

More Picks for this weekend’s UFC186 – Johnson vs. Horiguchi

As well as betting picks, I’ll give my opinions on some extra fights and explain why I don’t want to bet on them:

Demetrious Johnson vs Kyoji Horiguchi
C.B. Dollaway vs Michael Bisping
Fabio Maldonado vs Quinton Jackson
John Makdessi vs Shane Campbell
Alexis Davis vs Sarah Kaufman

I have no particular opinion on the above fights that you won’t have heard elsewhere.

Thomas Almeida vs Yves Jabouin
So this guy’s the new UFC prodigy. Well, maybe so. However, he’s very hitable, specifically very jabable. I wouldn’t bet him personally at these odds. I’d wanna see how he deals with someone who just leg kicks the crap out of him first and basically just get a bit more “data”. I feel like Almeida does more than likely win but if I was in Yves’ corner I’d be asking him to work the front leg like there was no tomorrow and keep that lateral movement going (which is his natural style). Almeida is a little bit like a higher tempo, less flat footed Nick Diaz and I would like to see what happened if he got slowed down by those leg kicks. I think Jabouin’s output is a little too tentative here and he’s probably too chinny but with a perfect gameplan it could be a very close fight.

Joe Riggs vs Patrick Cote
I’m big on Cote in this fight and have placed a 11 unit bet on him at -180. These odds are way too good. Joe Riggs is done as far as I am concerned. Though Cote’s chin might not be what it used to be, it’s still really solid and I just see him as significantly better than Riggs everywhere.

Bryan Barberena vs Chad Laprise
You can check out my reasoning for an 11 unit bet on Laprice in the post below this one!

David Michaud vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Aubin-Mercier is a big favourite here but he definitely worries me and I wouldn’t bet it. He’s a rudimentary, single shot striker. He’s hitable. He fights at a fairly slow tempo. Michaud is no great shakes either but he looks like he hits hard and I would bet he’s a better wrestler than Aubin-Mercier. I see this being a super-scrappy/scrambly, close fight and I wouldn’t touch it with a barge pole when it comes to betting.

Chris Clements vs Nordine Taleb
Basically I think Nordine Taleb will not win inside the distance. You can get that at -171. However, you get better odds if you place the two bets separately on Chris Clements straight up (+226) and Nordine Taleb to win the decision (+171). I’m edging towards a Taleb Decision but I just don’t see the guy as a finisher. He has a good jab, perhaps some power but he does not commit to a finish. When he takes people down he’s more than happy to just sit in half guard and drop ponderous elbows. Chris Clements is a bulldoze fowards, winging looping punches striker with a lot of power. He telegraphs his shots but still lands. He does land a lot of kicks, which I think could work against Taleb. The guy’s tough as nails. He got tooled by Matt Riddle but Riddle is basically a polar opposite of Taleb in terms of aggression.

Jessica Rakoczy vs Valerie Letourneau
I saw another (very prominent but less successful than he makes out) tipster say these two were lacking in technique. My god. Rakoczy was an 8 time world boxing champion. Letourneau has extremely good technique. We haven’t seen anything of Letourneau on the ground in the UFC so I think this one’s impossible to call personally and nobody should be betting it… There are just soooo many unknowns. Age (Rakoczy is nearly 40), long layoffs, insufficient data, Letourneau seems to cut easily. Blurgh…. still, I do think it will be a good fight! If I was forced to pick I would maybe say Rakoczy was a better bet because she’s the underdog.

Aisling Daly vs Randa Markos
I would side with Markos here. This was one of my initial bets but I watched Daly vs Chambers yesterday and Daly beasted her and looked very slick on the ground, so I am not betting it. I’m pretty sure this will end up as a decision one way or the other but at -185 I don’t think it’s that worth betting.

UFC 186: Johnson vs. Horiguchi Betting Tips

I’ve decided to start offering my own personal betting tips on MMA and my first tip is Chad Laprice. You can get him at -296 or;

Inside the distance: +197
Wins by decision: +111

I’m very confident in him as a pick but can’t decide if he’s going to get the finish or not, so I’m just going to go with the big 11 units on him straight up.

Barberina is just not on his level BUT Laprice doesn’t appear to be a finisher at the highest level. Laprice had back control in his last fight a couple of times and couldn’t do anything with it. However, he seems to be an extremely intelligent fighter in terms of gameplanning, taking strikers down and keeping it standing with excellent takedown defense against the grappler, in his last two fights respectively.