MMA Handicapper Stats: Smurf Bets |
|
Smurf Bets: Event by Event Predictions |
The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)
Date |
Event |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight Picks |
Props |
Parlays |
13th Apr '24 |
UFC 300 |
27.5 |
-14.5 |
-53% |
-12.9 / 21.5 (-60%) |
-1.6 / 6 (-27%) |
|
17th Feb '24 |
UFC 298 |
20 |
-2.4 |
-12% |
-2.4 / 20 (-12%) |
|
|
19th Aug '23 |
UFC 292 |
26 |
-9.3 |
-36% |
-10.0 / 10 (-100%) |
-2.8 / 10 (-28%) |
3.5 / 6 (58%) |
29th Jul '23 |
UFC 291 |
45 |
9.3 |
21% |
9.3 / 45 (21%) |
|
|
4th Mar '23 |
UFC 285 |
6 |
9.6 |
160% |
9.6 / 6 (160%) |
|
|
12th Nov '22 |
UFC 281 |
45 |
-7.2 |
-16% |
-7.2 / 45 (-16%) |
|
|
30th Jul '22 |
UFC 277 |
10 |
3.9 |
39% |
3.9 / 10 (39%) |
|
|
9th Jul '22 |
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev |
10 |
-2.4 |
-24% |
-2.4 / 10 (-24%) |
|
|
2nd Jul '22 |
UFC 276 |
42.5 |
-0.1 |
-0% |
-0.1 / 42.5 (-0%) |
|
|
30th May '20 |
UFC Fight Night 172 |
52.5 |
17.4 |
33% |
17.4 / 52.5 (33%) |
|
|
27th Jul '19 |
UFC 240 |
52 |
-7.4 |
-14% |
-5.3 / 37 (-14%) |
-2.1 / 15 (-14%) |
|
6th Jul '19 |
UFC 239 |
65 |
7.0 |
11% |
-1.4 / 52 (-3%) |
8.5 / 13 (65%) |
|
2nd Mar '19 |
UFC 235 |
38.5 |
-3.4 |
-9% |
-10.2 / 25 (-41%) |
6.9 / 13.5 (51%) |
|
23rd Feb '19 |
UFC Fight Night 145 |
10 |
8.9 |
89% |
4.5 / 5 (91%) |
4.3 / 5 (87%) |
|
17th Feb '19 |
UFC on ESPN 1 |
37.5 |
1.3 |
4% |
1.3 / 37.5 (4%) |
|
|
6th Oct '18 |
UFC 229 |
28.5 |
7.8 |
27% |
7.8 / 28.5 (27%) |
|
|
1st Jun '18 |
UFC Fight Night 131 |
51 |
-12.3 |
-24% |
-12.3 / 51 (-24%) |
|
|
31st Dec '17 |
UFC 219 |
40 |
-1.2 |
-3% |
-3.1 / 35 (-9%) |
1.8 / 5 (36%) |
|
18th Nov '17 |
UFC Fight Night 121 Sydney |
49.5 |
-21.7 |
-44% |
-18.2 / 40 (-46%) |
-3.5 / 9.5 (-37%) |
|
11th Nov '17 |
UFC Fight Night 120 Virginia |
30 |
13.8 |
46% |
13.8 / 30 (46%) |
|
|
4th Nov '17 |
UFC 217 |
16 |
0.7 |
5% |
0.7 / 16 (5%) |
|
|
Winning Events: 10 (48%) Losing Events: 11 (52%)
Average Staked Per Event: 33.45 units Most Staked On One Event: 65.00 units Best Event: 17.38 units Worst Event: -21.74 units Average Event: -0.10 units
Max Win Streak: Events: 3, Units: 18.91 Max Losing Streak: Events: 3, Units: -35.26 |
Smurf Bets: Year on Year Profit |
Year |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Events
Won / Lost
(%) |
Profit
Per Event |
2024 |
47.5 |
-16.9 |
-36% |
-15.3 / 41.5 (-37%) |
|
|
/ 2 (0%) |
-8.46 |
2023 |
77 |
9.6 |
12% |
8.9 / 61 (15%) |
|
3.5 / 6 (58%) |
2 / 1 (67%) |
3.20 |
2022 |
107.5 |
-5.8 |
-5% |
-5.8 / 107.5 (-5%) |
|
|
1 / 3 (25%) |
-1.44 |
2020 |
52.5 |
17.4 |
33% |
17.4 / 52.5 (33%) |
|
|
1 / 0 (100%) |
17.38 |
2019 |
203 |
6.6 |
3% |
-11.0 / 156.5 (-7%) |
17.6 / 46.5 (38%) |
|
3 / 2 (60%) |
1.31 |
2018 |
79.5 |
-4.5 |
-6% |
-4.5 / 79.5 (-6%) |
|
|
1 / 1 (50%) |
-2.26 |
2017 |
135.5 |
-8.5 |
-6% |
-6.8 / 121 (-6%) |
-1.7 / 14.5 (-12%) |
|
2 / 2 (50%) |
-2.12 |
|
Smurf Bets: Yearly Straight Pick Stats |
To view these stats, you need to be a VIP
|
Smurf Bets: Profit / Loss by Organization |
Organization |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight Picks |
Props |
Parlays |
UFC |
702.5 |
-2.2 |
-0% |
-17.1 / 619.5 (-3%) |
11.5 / 77 (15%) |
3.5 / 6 (58%) |
|
Smurf Bets: Straight Pick Stats |
Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
Big Favorites |
38 (29%) |
29 |
76 % |
243.00 |
16.13 |
0.42 |
7% |
Slight Favorites |
31 (24%) |
17 |
55 % |
152.50 |
-7.97 |
-0.26 |
-5% |
Slight Underdogs |
32 (25%) |
14 |
44 % |
135.00 |
9.43 |
0.29 |
7% |
Big Underdogs |
29 (22%) |
5 |
17 % |
89.00 |
-34.73 |
-1.20 |
-39% |
Betting Stats By Card Position
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
Main Event |
21 (16%) |
13 |
62 % |
118.50 |
17.54 |
0.84 |
15% |
Co-Main Event |
15 (12%) |
8 |
53 % |
81.50 |
-0.80 |
-0.05 |
-1% |
Position 3-5 |
35 (27%) |
19 |
54 % |
148.50 |
15.79 |
0.45 |
11% |
6+ (Undercard) |
58 (45%) |
24 |
41 % |
266.00 |
-52.53 |
-0.91 |
-20% |
|
Smurf Bets: Profit by Weight Class |
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
Heavyweight |
9 (7%) |
6 |
67 % |
34.00 |
32.95 |
3.66 |
97% |
Light Heavy |
11 (8%) |
3 |
27 % |
53.00 |
-20.82 |
-1.89 |
-39% |
Middleweight |
13 (10%) |
5 |
38 % |
53.50 |
-9.45 |
-0.73 |
-18% |
Welterweight |
19 (15%) |
8 |
42 % |
85.50 |
-16.12 |
-0.85 |
-19% |
Lightweight |
27 (21%) |
15 |
56 % |
135.00 |
-5.43 |
-0.20 |
-4% |
Featherweight |
12 (9%) |
6 |
50 % |
65.50 |
-6.75 |
-0.56 |
-10% |
Bantamweight |
14 (11%) |
6 |
43 % |
67.00 |
-20.45 |
-1.46 |
-31% |
Flyweight |
5 (4%) |
2 |
40 % |
30.00 |
-8.42 |
-1.68 |
-28% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Women's Fights |
20 (15%) |
14 |
70 % |
96.00 |
37.35 |
1.87 |
39% |
Featherweight |
3 (2%) |
3 |
100 % |
26.00 |
7.25 |
2.42 |
28% |
Bantamweight |
3 (2%) |
3 |
100 % |
20.00 |
13.63 |
4.54 |
68% |
Flyweight |
5 (4%) |
1 |
20 % |
15.50 |
-8.15 |
-1.63 |
-53% |
Strawweight |
9 (7%) |
7 |
78 % |
34.50 |
24.62 |
2.74 |
71% |
|
Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays) |
Straight picks within parlays
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Big Favorites |
4 (100%) |
4 |
100 % |
Slight Favorites |
0 (0%) |
0 |
nan % |
Slight Underdogs |
0 (0%) |
0 |
nan % |
Big Underdogs |
0 (0%) |
0 |
nan % |
|
4 |
4 |
100 % |
Props bets and props within parlays
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
>65% chance |
5 (24%) |
5 |
100 % |
50-65% |
4 (19%) |
2 |
50 % |
35-50% |
6 (29%) |
3 |
50 % |
<35% chance |
6 (29%) |
0 |
0 % |
|
21 |
10 |
48 % |
|
Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types |
* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %. |
Tail Smurf Bets's bets |
If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...
This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.
Date |
Event |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Fee |
1 unit = |
Start |
End |
4th Nov |
UFC 217 |
16 |
0.7 |
5% |
|
$10.00 |
$1,000.00 |
$1,007.32 |
11th Nov |
UFC Fight Night 120 Virginia |
30 |
13.8 |
46% |
|
$10.07 |
$1,007.32 |
$1,145.88 |
18th Nov |
UFC Fight Night 121 Sydney |
49.5 |
-21.7 |
-44% |
|
$11.46 |
$1,145.88 |
$896.78 |
31st Dec |
UFC 219 |
40 |
-1.2 |
-3% |
|
$8.97 |
$896.78 |
$885.69 |
1st Jun |
UFC Fight Night 131 |
51 |
-12.3 |
-24% |
|
$8.86 |
$885.69 |
$776.85 |
6th Oct |
UFC 229 |
28.5 |
7.8 |
27% |
|
$7.77 |
$776.85 |
$837.18 |
17th Feb |
UFC on ESPN 1 |
37.5 |
1.3 |
4% |
|
$8.37 |
$837.18 |
$848.48 |
23rd Feb |
UFC Fight Night 145 |
10 |
8.9 |
89% |
|
$8.48 |
$848.48 |
$923.94 |
2nd Mar |
UFC 235 |
38.5 |
-3.4 |
-9% |
|
$9.24 |
$923.94 |
$892.95 |
6th Jul |
UFC 239 |
65 |
7.0 |
11% |
|
$8.93 |
$892.95 |
$955.63 |
27th Jul |
UFC 240 |
52 |
-7.4 |
-14% |
|
$9.56 |
$955.63 |
$885.32 |
30th May |
UFC Fight Night 172 |
52.5 |
17.4 |
33% |
|
$8.85 |
$885.32 |
$1,039.16 |
2nd Jul |
UFC 276 |
42.5 |
-0.1 |
-0% |
|
$10.39 |
$1,039.16 |
$1,038.37 |
9th Jul |
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev |
10 |
-2.4 |
-24% |
|
$10.38 |
$1,038.37 |
$1,013.08 |
30th Jul |
UFC 277 |
10 |
3.9 |
39% |
|
$10.13 |
$1,013.08 |
$1,052.81 |
12th Nov |
UFC 281 |
45 |
-7.2 |
-16% |
|
$10.53 |
$1,052.81 |
$977.30 |
4th Mar |
UFC 285 |
6 |
9.6 |
160% |
|
$9.77 |
$977.30 |
$1,070.89 |
29th Jul |
UFC 291 |
45 |
9.3 |
21% |
|
$10.71 |
$1,070.89 |
$1,170.88 |
19th Aug |
UFC 292 |
26 |
-9.3 |
-36% |
|
$11.71 |
$1,170.88 |
$1,061.83 |
17th Feb |
UFC 298 |
20 |
-2.4 |
-12% |
|
$10.62 |
$1,061.83 |
$1,036.07 |
13th Apr |
UFC 300 |
27.5 |
-14.5 |
-53% |
|
$10.36 |
$1,036.07 |
$885.94 |
ROI % from starting bank balance: -11.41% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now. |
Smurf Bets: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks) |
Last 20 Wins
|
Date |
Straight Pick |
Opponent |
Odds |
Bet |
Result |
|
|
1. |
Apr '24 |
Max Holloway |
Justin Gaethje |
2.43 |
2 |
TKO, R5 (4:59) |
|
|
2. |
Apr '24 |
Arman Tsarukyan |
Charles Oliveira |
1.50 |
2.5 |
Split Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
3. |
Feb '24 |
Robert Whittaker |
Paulo Costa |
1.43 |
5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
4. |
Feb '24 |
Ilia Topuria |
Alex Volkanovski |
2.08 |
5 |
TKO, R2 (3:32) |
|
|
5. |
Jul '23 |
Roman Kopylov |
Claudio Ribeiro |
1.48 |
5 |
TKO, R2 (0:33) |
|
|
6. |
Jul '23 |
Jake Matthews |
Darrius Flowers |
1.40 |
5 |
Sub, R2 (2:37) |
|
|
7. |
Jul '23 |
Carlos Vergara |
Vinicius Salvador |
1.59 |
5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
8. |
Jul '23 |
Gabriel Bonfim |
Trevin Giles |
1.30 |
5 |
Sub, R1 (1:13) |
|
|
9. |
Jul '23 |
Derrick Lewis |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
2.80 |
5 |
TKO, R1 (0:33) |
|
|
10. |
Jul '23 |
Justin Gaethje |
Dustin Poirier |
2.30 |
5 |
TKO, R2 (1:0) |
|
|
11. |
Mar '23 |
Alexa Grasso |
Valentina Shevchenko |
7.35 |
1 |
Sub, R4 (4:34) |
|
|
12. |
Mar '23 |
Jon Jones |
Ciryl Gane |
1.65 |
5 |
Sub, R1 (2:4) |
|
|
13. |
Nov '22 |
Matt Frevola |
Ottman Azaitar |
2.35 |
2.5 |
TKO, R1 (2:30) |
|
|
14. |
Nov '22 |
Andre Petroski |
Wellington Turman |
1.53 |
5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
15. |
Nov '22 |
Renato Moicano |
Brad Riddell |
1.81 |
5 |
Sub, R1 (3:20) |
|
|
16. |
Nov '22 |
Daniel Hooker |
Claudio Puelles |
1.67 |
5 |
TKO, R2 (4:6) |
|
|
17. |
Nov '22 |
Chris Gutierrez |
Frankie Edgar |
1.38 |
5 |
TKO, R1 (2:1) |
|
|
18. |
Jul '22 |
Amanda Nunes |
Julianna Pena |
1.39 |
10 |
U Decision (5 rounds) |
|
|
19. |
Jul '22 |
Rafael Fiziev |
Rafael dos Anjos |
1.51 |
5 |
TKO, R5 (0:18) |
|
|
20. |
Jul '22 |
Israel Adesanya |
Jared Cannonier |
1.22 |
5 |
U Decision (5 rounds) |
|
|
Last 20 Losses
|
Date |
Straight Pick |
Opponent |
Odds |
Bet |
Result |
Hedge? |
|
|
1. |
Apr '24 |
Jamahal Hill |
Alex Pereira |
2.20 |
2.5 |
TKO, R1 (3:14) |
No |
|
|
2. |
Apr '24 |
Aleksandar Rakic |
Jiri Prochazka |
1.92 |
2.5 |
TKO, R2 (3:17) |
No |
|
|
3. |
Apr '24 |
Calvin Kattar |
Aljamain Sterling |
2.45 |
2.5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
|
|
4. |
Apr '24 |
Jalin Turner |
Renato Moicano |
1.43 |
5 |
TKO, R2 (4:11) |
No |
|
|
5. |
Apr '24 |
Jim Miller |
Bobby Green |
2.55 |
1.5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
|
|
6. |
Apr '24 |
Marina Alcalde Rodriguez |
Jessica Andrade |
2.24 |
1.5 |
Split Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
|
|
7. |
Apr '24 |
Cody Garbrandt |
Deiveson Figueiredo |
3.70 |
1.5 |
Sub, R2 (4:2) |
No |
|
|
8. |
Feb '24 |
Junior Tafa |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
3.00 |
2.5 |
TKO, R2 (1:14) |
No |
|
|
9. |
Feb '24 |
Roman Kopylov |
Anthony Hernandez |
2.80 |
2.5 |
Sub, R2 (3:23) |
No |
|
|
10. |
Feb '24 |
Henry Cejudo |
Merab Dvalishvili |
3.20 |
2.5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
|
|
11. |
Feb '24 |
Geoff Neal |
Ian Garry |
2.95 |
2.5 |
Split Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
|
|
12. |
Aug '23 |
Aljamain Sterling |
Sean O'Malley |
1.39 |
5 |
TKO, R2 (0:51) |
No |
|
|
13. |
Aug '23 |
Aljamain Sterling |
Sean O'Malley |
1.40 |
5 |
TKO, R2 (0:51) |
No |
|
|
14. |
Jul '23 |
Michael Chiesa |
Kevin Holland |
2.30 |
5 |
Sub, R1 (2:39) |
No |
|
|
15. |
Jul '23 |
Tony Ferguson |
Bobby Green |
4.00 |
5 |
Sub, R3 (4:54) |
No |
|
|
16. |
Jul '23 |
Jan Blachowicz |
Alex Pereira |
1.91 |
5 |
Split Decision (3 rounds) |
No |
|
|
17. |
Nov '22 |
Seung Woo Choi |
Mike Trizano |
1.57 |
5 |
TKO, R1 (4:51) |
No |
|
|
18. |
Nov '22 |
Molly McCann |
Erin Blanchfield |
4.10 |
2.5 |
Sub, R1 (3:37) |
No |
|
|
19. |
Nov '22 |
Dominick Reyes |
Ryan Spann |
1.48 |
2.5 |
TKO, R1 (1:20) |
No |
|
|
20. |
Nov '22 |
Michael Chandler |
Dustin Poirier |
2.85 |
5 |
Sub, R3 (2:0) |
No |
|
|
* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision. |
Smurf Bets: Progress Chart |
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